Marmol Research Budapest
Szilvia Borbély Hungary: Pension I. Presentation of the pension scheme 1. The wider and stricter pension schemes The Hungarian pension scheme may be treated from a wider and a stricter point of view. The wider scheme contain all kind of pension-like assistance while the stricter scheme refer only the after work (that is own right) old age pension. The two types of pensions should be managed in a system as often the not age related pensions function like age related (see for example the sometimes not clear role of disability pension, or the early retirement or pre-pension). Types of Pensions in wider sense:
2. Reform in the pension system of stricter sense In the old pension scheme current contributions of the employed (that is working members) cover the current services paid to the retired ones while no capital stock is accumulated. (This system has been managed by autogovernment and later by the state.) The logic of the reform according to the Act LXXX (80) contains:
The scheme is laid down on the principle of communal responsibility of insured persons, employers and State Both employees and employers shall pay contributions specified by law. The State shall be responsible for the operation and the development of the social security system. 2.1. Three-pillar pension system: the emergence of partially privatised and capitalised system 1997 is the year of adoption of law on the new- so called three pillars - pension scheme, which is radically, differs from the previous only solidarity based, pay-as-you-go scheme. Although the new scheme began to replace the old from the 1st of January 1998, the old system is still surviving as long as there are people who do not choose to enter the new one, and because the old Fund will serve as the first pillar in the new system. The new system is obligatory for employees starting their working life after 30 of June 1998 and may be chosen for others. The three pillars of the new scheme are as follows: 1. Pension Insurance Fund 2. Private pension funds for obligatory private insurance 3. Voluntary mutual pension funds or the private pension funds for non-obligatory private insurance (operating since the beginning of 90-ies) The employees' decision to select the new scheme had to be made before the end of August 1999. Those who did not choose to be a member of any private pension fund by that time would remain entirely in the old - pay-as-you-go - system. While the first pillar of the new scheme is the Pension Insurance Fund, the second - obligatory - pillar is characterised by a capital coverage system, where the future services are calculated on the basis of the capital accumulated on the personal account of the member. In the second pillar the annuity services become accessible after 15 years, at the soonest. The member will be able to choose different types of life annuity and lump sum payment. The third pillar consists of the voluntary pension funds, regulated by law in 1993. For the participants it give possibility to tax exemption. 2.2. Coverage and contribution The amount of contributions and benefits are decided by the legislation power, it is regulated by the Act LXXX of 1997. The coverage of the social insurance pensions is carried out by the contributions of employers and employees. The State shall ensure that the retirement benefits were paid even if the expenses of the Pension Insurance Fund exceed receipts. If the anticipated expenses of the Pension Insurance Fund exceed receipts, the difference shall be secured through central budget allocation. (Act LXXXXI of 1997, § 2 (2)).
In 1999 and 2000 staying with the old system, employees remit the 8 percent of their monthly wages to Pension Insurance Fund, the first pillar. If one has chosen the new pension scheme then 2 per cent of the wage has to be paid to the Pension Insurance Fund and 6 per cent to the Private Pension Fund. (Originally in 2000 the contribution for the second pillar would have been already 8 %.) The employer has to pay as part of the labour cost 22 per cent of wage to the Pension Insurance Fund. (In 1997 the employer's contribution was 24 per cent and the employees contribution 7 per cent, from what 6 per cent had to be paid to the Private Pension Fund.) 2.3. Establishing and running private pension funds Act on private pensions and private pension funds, that is the Act LXXXII of 1997:
Private Pension Funds may be established by:
2.3.1. Private Pension Funds: concentration and expectation Concentration process At the beginning of 1998 a severe competition started among the future private pension funds, aiming to attract as many members as possible by the end of August of 1999, when the period of joining the new pension system for those who have been working already ended. Almost half of the future funds was not able to collect the legally prescribed two thousand persons as a minimum for a fund. By the end of September 1999 31 Private Pension Funds had permission to operate. Only a few private funds - namely six - concentrated 82 percent of the membership of the whole private pension sphere and 74 per cent of the assets (1998). The biggest fund ÁB-Aegon, is owned by insurance company, property of the Dutch Aegon group. Its membership was already greater than 250,000 in November 1998, while its assets exceeded HUF 3.5 billion at the same time. The other five were founded by Nationale Nederlanden, OTP Bank, the Hungária Insurance Company (owned by the German Allianz and Winterthur.) Among the owners of private pension funds are nine big banks, like the OTP Bank (the biggest Hungarian residential bank), the ABN-AMRO Bank, the Budapest Bank (owned by General Electric), HYPO Bank, Erste Bank, Hungarian Trade bank (MKB), Bank Austria Creditanstalt, Hungarian National Bank, Trade and Credit bank (K&H Bank). Among the owners there are also insurance companies like the mentioned ÁB-Aegon, NN (Nationale Niederlanden), Winterthur, AXA-Colonia. There are also some funds run by companies like Pharmaceutical company Richter Gedeon, the Hungarian Oil Company (MOL), funds of Electrical Industries, the Hungarian Railways, the Hungarian Post, the Hungarian Army. The Pension Fund of Siemens had been closed. The market of the voluntary funds is also concentrated and usually the actors are the same: 16 of the 320 funds have recruited more than 60 percent of all members, and 25 of them manage almost the 70 percent of the total assets. (1998) High expectations: rapidly growing voluntary membership The private funds recruited almost 700,000 members during the first quarter of 1998, and though growth slowed down afterwards, the membership came close to 1.4 million by the end of 1998, and reached 2 millions at the end of September 1999, that one fifth part of the total population and almost half of the economically active population . The great majority of the pension members have chosen voluntary the participation in the new scheme as it is obligatory only for the young people starting their carrier. The vast majority (80 %) of the members in Private Pension Funds are 20-40 years' old In the voluntary mutual pension funds were almost 500,000 new members entering in 1997-1998. The assets of voluntary funds has doubled in the meantime, and exceeded HUF 100 billion by December 1998. The voluntary pension funds have by now (2000) 1 million members. During that period the assets of private pension funds came to approximately HUF 30 billion. The collected assets mainly consisted of membership fees, amounting to 80-90 percent during the 1998. The amount of contribution of the founders to the funds' assets was not disclosed in many cases (especially by the biggest funds established by banking groups and insurance companies). According to some surveys, especially young adults (the primary target group of pension funds) felt their membership fees more secure at these private funds than at the state-controlled social security system and excepted higher return. The feeling steamed from the funds' strong marketing campaigns and also from the state guarantees stressed very often. According to the experts of SAPRI (2000) the high number of joiners the private funds has not been caused so much by the good understanding of the advantages of the private schemes (which will be seen only after 20 and 40 years) but about the dangers threatening the public pension. The trust in the public pension system has been catastrophically weakened… (SAPRI (2000), p. 26) Few leavers Anybody has the chance to decide upon changing fund after he/she has spent six months at least in a fund. In 1998 there were around 6,000 private fund members who already left behind this sphere and returned to the state controlled social security net. At the end of 1999 the number of persons choosing again the traditional pension scheme increased to 15000. This amount represents only 0.75 % of the total membership of the Private Pension Funds. 2.3.2. Wealth and investment policy of Private Pension Funds By the end of 1998 the wealth of Private Pension Funds reached HUF 29 billion. By the end of 1999 this wealth increased to HUF 70 billion. The wealth of Voluntary Insurance Funds reached HUF 135 billion. The total wealth of Private and Voluntary Funds, that is the second and third pillar of present pension scheme amounted HUF 205 billion. It means the growth of importance of private pension savings in the households' savings. At the end of 1997 the participation of private funds in the households' savings represented only 1.6 per cent, in 1998 it was 3.2 per cent and at the end of September 1999 it took already 4.4 per cent. (Source: Treasury Supervision, 1999) Although funds are generally following conservative investment policy, ultimately some of them had lost. The investment policy of the funds is supervised by Treasury Supervision. In 1999 the Private Pension Funds assets/GDP ratio was only 0,17 percent. In 1999 the vast majority (85 %) of the assets of the Private Pension Funds was composed by government securities. The same happened in case of Voluntary Mutual Pension Funds. The second biggest part of the assets has been composed by shares (7,1 percent in case of Private Pension Funds and 8.8 percent in case of Voluntary Mutual Pension Funds). In case of Private pension Funds the third mayor part of capital was in form of bank account or cash, while in the case of Voluntary Mutual pension Fund the third major part of capital was held in bonds. 2.4. The State. Principles concerning the social security system According to the Law on Social Insurance the social security system is a communal responsibility of employer’ and insured persons. Both employees and employers shall pay contributions specified by law. The State shall be responsible for the operation and the development of the social security system in harmony with national economic prospects. a) The State secures the social insurance pensions for elderly people, the permanently or temporarily disabled and their dependants (guarantor). b) According to the law the operation and the development of the mandatory social insurance pension system is the responsibility of the State. c) The State shall secure the operation of the private pension system by enforcing the rules of institutional protection, by maintaining state supervision and by assuming financial guarantees from the central budget for the solvency of the Guarantee Fund, which guarantee the payment of the fund members" claims (guarantor and regulator).(Law LXXX of 1997, article 3. (2)).
2.5 Reform of the "first pillar" Not only the composition of the pension scheme has been reformed but also the traditional first pillar, that is the pension offered by the Pension Insurance Fund. The most important transformations according to the law (1996) are as follows:
II. Current problems: insufficient income, accessibility, etc. Current social and sociological situation Growing number and proportion of pensioners due to age structure and inactivity
Notwithstanding according to SAPRI report (2000) the role of pension system as a safety net has been reduced clearly from 1998 as the figures do it indicate too.
Source: Yearbook of CSO, 1998, pp. 153-154, in: SAPRI (2000), p. 23 New forms of work The appearance of the atypical works - among others the growing number of self-employed - as well as the so called grey employment (the employment on minimum wage) has strengthened the importance of the third pillar two and the different kinds of life insurance combined with life annuities. They are offered not by the voluntary mutual funds but by market-type insurance companies (who otherwise own in many cases the private insurance funds). Consequences
Deteriorating pensioners' situation According to the SAPRI experts (SAPRI (2000), p. 26) the deterioration of the pensioners' situation since the change of regime was smaller that of the whole population but greater than that of the active earners. The relative situation improved in 1998 somewhat when the full indexation to wages was still applied. (In 1999 already the Swiss indexation worsened the relative situation of pensioners). 1989=100
Source: Yearbook of CSO, 1998 in SAPRI (2000), p. 27 The situation of pensioners has been deteriorating for the following reasons:
Problems of value-maintaining by benefit indexation According to the Act LXXXI of 1997 on social insurance pension the benefits would be increased partly (in 50 %) "to the extent corresponding to the weighted average of the consumer price increase measured in the first three quarters of the calendar year and partly (in 50 %) according to the average gross national wage increase." The problem consist on the on the content of the basquet according to what the inflation is calculated and on the a posteriori increase of pensions. According to the same Law in 1997 the pension in 1999 should have been fully indexed to wages and the mixed type of indexation (the so called Swiss indexation) ought to have been applied only in the subsequent years. This would have meant an increase of 18-19 % in 1999 instead of the realised 11 %. The Constitutional Court majority did not consider this step unconstitutional albeit the votes were divided. 1998 was only the second year after the regime change when the real wages increased considerably so that the former losses of the pensioners would have been some extent compensated. Monitoring deficits Pension Insurance Self-Governments were managed until spring 1998 jointly by employers and employees. The Act LXXXIV of 1991 regulated the governance of social security self-governments. The Act has been applied since 1993 following the election of representatives of social security. The last election of the employees’ representatives in the Self-Governments of the Health Insurance and Pension Insurance took place in 1997. The employees had the possibility to choose from the trade unions representatives. This practice of elections had a trade union legitimating role too. The activity of auto-governments was ceased following the 1998 parliamentary elections and the victory of the new coalition. The public control of pension fund has been totally abolished. The assets given formerly to Public Insurance Fund as a reserve have been sold by the Government, as the deficit is covered directly by the budget. Slowing down the original transformation According to the law of 1997 after two years of transition the members of private pension funds should pay the 1/4 part of their pension contribution to the private fund and the other 3/4 to the Pension Insurance Fund. This process slowed down and the government froze at 6 % the compulsory private contribution rate (which was planned to increase up to 8 % in two years), fearing from the Pension Insurance Fund huge deficit. Deteriorating disability scheme The stricter eligibility and screening rules for disability pensions are introduced without the implementation of a system for the retraining and rehabilitation. In 2000 the situation for disabled has deteriorated as the state subsidy for the companies which employ disabled was reduced by 20 %.
III. Sustainability of pensions in the long-run The reforms, the introduction of three pillar system and the reform of the first pillar as changing criteria of eligibility, growing age limit, instead of indexation of pensions based on wage rise, the mixed indexation based on wage and price changes, and the harmonisation of contributions and allowances until 2009-2013, aim the long-term sustainability of the system. As regards the first pillar until 2013 SAPRI experts wait:
The sustainability in the long run may be in risk for the following reasons:
Possibly increasing burden on the "zero" pillar In the pension scheme introduced in 1997 the Sapri experts (SAPRI (2000), p. 23) call "zero" pillar "the provision for those who cannot fulfil the eligibility criteria. This benefit was defined by an amendment of the Social Act (accepted simultaneously with the pension act) transforming the earlier regular social assistance into an old-age provision." Although originally relatively few people get this benefit (28 thousands in 1998), it's importance is excepted to grow as an increasing number of people will not be eligible for pension (the minimum contributory period increased from 10 to 20 years, for example.) It will positively influence the pension scheme sustainability but negatively the State budget. Problems of input Decreasing income level of Solidarity based Social Pension Fund because of growing number of people (young people) and atypical workers, self-employed entering the Private Funds, Voluntary Mutual Funds as well as choosing life insurance and annuities combination. Private Funds: decreasing investment possibilities in short term (money market recession, decreasing activity of the Hungarian share market). Optimistic view from 1998: the State Fund Supervisory Board predicted if the present trend continued, all assets of the pension funds would exceed 8-9 percent of household savings by 2002. Condition of sustainability: permanent updating of the system As the economic background is permanently changing, different shortcomings may appear. It would need a permanent updating of the system through legislative or regulatory change. For example the rules calculating the pensions are to be changed several times until 2013. The problem is that this updating has to respond to the needs generated from the changes of economic environment and not from political needs. Low level of pension funds assets/GDP In 1999 in Hungary the Private Pension Funds assets/GDP ratio was only 0,17 percent. The similar ration in Italy is 3 %, in Germany it is 5.8, in the USA it is 60 % Great Britain it is 74,7 %, in Netherlands it is 87,4 % and in Switzerland it is 117 %. According an IBRD expert a pension system can be considered as mature if the assets managed by the treasury equals at least 50 percent of the GDP. Hungary is excepted to have a sound capital adequacy in 2028. Uncertain future of private funds The future of private pension funds, as second and third pillars may be considered more risky than that of the Public Insurance Fund. The risks are cumulative, the 20-50 years private savings depend on the performance of economy, performance of funds, etc. (Ország, Stiglitz (1999) According to this the "probability of the relative (maybe even absolute).deterioration of the standards of the pensions is higher than the probability of their improvement…"
IV. Plans for future pension reform The implementation of pension reform - supported by World Bank - has been gradual. Between 1990 and 1996 three Acts were passed:
The debates were restricted mainly to the experts and politics, accompanied by a wide positive communication campaign for the public at large. August, 1999 as the peak of this campaign, as a result a huge majority has chosen the new scheme having confidence in it. Since then the government communication on pension has been diminished to a minimum level. Increase the income of funds
II. Influence and relevance of the international and European levels on policy-making at national level
In the development of the new pension system the following regulating principles were kept in mind.
World Bank requirements based on loan agreements and implemented during the Hungarian pension reform process:
a) In the early nineties the loan agreements between Hungary and the World Bank had as important aim the reduction of the ratio of pensions within social expenditures. The emphasised tools were:
b) Since the middle of nineties the idea of privatisation has been underlined. The Averting the Old Age Crisis, World Bank (1994) study concerned the multi-pillar pension system, with a minimum pension, a voluntary insurance and a dual wage related scheme, one part of which would be a pay-as you go social security scheme and the another a compulsory private pension based in individual savings account. The liberalisation of pension scheme has been firmly supported by the Ministry of Finance.
Remark: Neither the World Bank, nor the government or even the then opposition in the parliament took into consideration the opposed opinions concerning the introduction of the compulsory private pension. According to Joseph Stiglitz (former Word Bank spokesman) the Post-Washington consensus started to be formulated 2-3 years ago has as broader goal the environmentally sustainable, equitable and democratic development as a goal.. Investing in education to build human capital is an example of a policy which promotes the achievement of all these broad goals. But there may be trade-offs, eg. between economic growth and income inequality… (Stiglitz (1998). In Sapri (2000), p. 15)) The new consensus would mean probably the recognition of a bigger responsibility of State. Despite of the emerging so called Post-Washington consensus, the two loan agreements concluded between Hungary and World Bank since then - a loan agreement concerning the higher education and another the pension system reform- does not yet reflect the possible new "wave". "The World Bank loan for the pension system reform aimed mainly at easing the difficulties due to the introduction of the compulsory private pillar. The World bank loan is needed since there is a substantial withdrawal of resources from the public pillar due to privatisation - but it is going to increase the burden on the country on long run. Despite this the World Bank, several Hungarian economists and obviously the lobby of the private insurance companies push for further significant enlargement of the private pillar. There is a growing number of foreign and Hungarian professionals though who in addition to earlier protesters consider it a professional and political mistake to have introduced the private pillar under the given circumstances, and who believe that this measure is not in conformity with the post-Washington principles either." (Sapri (2000), p. 16)
2. EU "new governance" "Benchmarking" and solidarity
3. Contradictions of World Bank and European social policy traditions The social policy recommendations formulated on the philosophical background of the "Old Washington Consensus" are sometimes in conflict with the European social policy tradition. The Washington consensus does not deny the validity of the solidarity and equal opportunities: it simply ignores them. Concerning the public responsibility it simply declares that it should be as small as possible. That is why the recommendations formulated in line with the Washington consensus were not able to take into account the shared "European" social values. (Sapri (2000), p. 13)
Some dilemmas With the introduction of new pension scheme the following questions may be raised: Does the new scheme solve the former problems of the pension scheme based only on the pay as you go system, namely
Did the introduction of new pension scheme bettered the situation of pensioners today?
The question of pension as a safety net. What to do with the high dependency rate? How to lessen the high dependency rate? The pension is not any more the question of age. Growing number of working age pensioner. Pension as solution against unemployment. See the distribution of pensioners, and the different kind of pension. The growing role of the pension system as a safety net in Hungary until 1998. Maybe the pension system a kind of safety net or the two roles must be clearly divided (as in the World Bank philosophy)? According to the World Bank recommendation the defence of poor people is possible by means of safety net. The Word Bank's recommendation have not totally been applied: no adequate safety net has been developed (the adequacy is twofold: everybody in need should be reached by the assistance, and the volume of assistance should be adequate). Has the positive discrimination any place in the pension schemes or it should be treated as task of social care?
How to finance the growing demand? Looking the pension like assistance in system: growing demand for pension because and for every type of pension because of concomitant presence of the
Has the solidarity a future? Growing income and social inequalities and the future of solidarity. Another basic problem: well paid employees preference regarding private pension funds. It mean that in long run the income of Pension Insurance Fund would increase slower than of the Private Pension Funds. In long run it would mean a burden for the central budget. Modernising economic structure, modernising workplaces, changing structure of labour force, economic growth and increasing inequalities in income. Will the solidarity survive or not? Would the Private Pension Funds answer to the requirements? Is the danger of cumulative risks real? Private pension fund and the voluntary mutual pension funds capital accumulation depends not only on the members' contributions, but on the performance of stock market, bank interests, government securities income, etc. that is on the fiscal and monetary policy as well as on the expectations and insecurities of the money and capital market. Decentralisation with recentralisation? Is the civil control important in case of public pension funds or not? One of the purpose of the Hungarian pension reform was the decentralisation of the system. Since 1998 happened the opposite. In 1998 was abolished the electing governing board exercising some civil control over the public pension Fund. There was a gradual recentralisation:
CEEC and EU policies: what can we learn from each other? During forming its social policy, social reforms and schemes CEEC should take into consideration the following:
The Copenhagen declaration require
(On the basis of Copenhagen Declaration the Hungarian Parliament ratified European Social Charter, law on the equal opportunities of handicapped people. There have been efforts to increase employment too. But poverty did not become a government concern. No national strategies were worked out to fight against deep poverty or poverty in general. There were no endeavours to reduce inequalities, or te weaken the processes of exclusion. "On the contrary there is a tendency to accept poverty as a natural corollary of social life" SAPRI (2000), p. 67-68).
Two types of social system
Sources Act LXXX on persons entitled to social security benefits and pensions as well as the coverage of these services (adopted in July 15, 1997) Act LXXXI on the social insurance pension (1997) Act LXXXII on private pension and private pension Funds (1997) Averting the Old Age Crisis, Policies to Protect the Old and promote Growth, (1994) World Bank Policy Research Report OMKMK (2000) Laky Teréz: Munkaerőpiaci helyzetjelentés, Budapest 2000 Ország Péter R and Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1999) rethinking Pension reform: Ten myths about social security systems, Paper presented at the Conference on "New Ideas about Old Aage Security", The World Bank, Washington D.C. SAPRI Report (2000) on the World Bank Structural Adjustment Program Loans to Hungary, 1988-1998, Ist Working Group, Zsuzsa Ferge, head of the working group Stiglitz, Joseph E. (1998) More Instruments and Broader Goals: Moving toward the post-Washington Consensus. Wider Annual lectures 2. The United Nations University, January 1998 |